Every couple of years, the yard signs go up, the ads start running during dinner, and a familiar question starts making the rounds: "Should I be doing something with my investments before the election?"
It's a fair question, and I've heard it many times over the years. With the midterm elections coming up on November 3, it seems like a good moment to share how I think about it... and why my answer rarely changes.
The noise gets loud. The fundamentals stay quiet.
The loudest moment in the room is rarely the most important one.
Headlines move fast. Good businesses move slowly.
Election season brings plenty of predictions about what one outcome or another will mean for the markets. Many of those predictions contradict each other. What doesn't change in a single news cycle is whether a company makes something people need, manages its money responsibly, and has leadership that thinks in decades rather than quarters. That's what I pay attention to, regardless of who is on the ballot.
Markets have lived through every kind of Congress
Over the years, investors have seen divided government, one-party control, and plenty of shifts in between. Markets have had good years and hard years under all of them. Short-term swings around elections can happen; nobody, including me, can reliably predict them.
Trying to time your investments around an election means making two correct guesses: when to get out, and when to get back in. Getting both right is a hard game to win, and getting one wrong can cost more than the swing you were trying to avoid.
What I'd focus on instead
Your timeline. If you won't need this money for years, a few weeks of headlines shouldn't change the plan.
Your cash needs. If a large expense is coming in the next year, let's make sure that money isn't depending on how the market behaves in November.
Your comfort level. If election coverage is keeping you up at night, that's worth a conversation. It may tell us something useful about your risk tolerance, regardless of who wins.
What you own. A well-run business doesn't become a poorly run one overnight because of a vote count.
Vote with your ballot, not your brokerage account
I'd encourage everyone to vote. It matters, and it's one of the privileges we all share. But your portfolio was built around your goals, your family and your timeline, not around who controls Congress. None of those things change on November 4.
If this season has you feeling uneasy, give us a call. Talking things through is part of what we're here for. Sometimes the most valuable thing we can do together is simply confirm that the plan you already have still fits.